01 · Revised programmeTo be pricedNo construction allocation until scope and evidence are defined
- Package scope
- R1, R2 and R4; stations, signalling, power, structures and accessibility
- Pricing gate
- Price by asset quantities and measured benefits
Options, costs and affordability
Compare before choosing
The revised programme is repriced by scope and evidence. Existing-network renewal, restoration, conditional packages and studies have separate budgets; no new national total is validated.
Interactive comparison
Reprice the programme, not the earlier full-build scenario
Select a pricing bucket to see its scope and evidence requirements. None implies automatic construction.
The revised programme has no validated national total. Reprice the agreed scope in four buckets; do not subtract guessed savings from the earlier concept. Operating costs, revenue and subsidy also need a new service-based model.
Existing network
R1, R2 and R4; stations, signalling, power, structures and accessibility
Price by asset quantities and measured benefitsRestoration
R3 Hrazdan–Dilijan–Ijevan; slopes, tunnels, bridges and systems
Price after condition surveyConditional packages
C1, airport access and international interfaces
Price only after scope, geometry, operating model and funding responsibility are knownUndecided access
Aragats, Shirak plateau, north-eastern Tavush, Lori and southern access studies
Study budgets only; no assumed construction CAPEXEarlier maximum full-build comparator — $19–29.3bn
Archived comparison only, not the revised programme budget. Its exact stage sum was $18.95–29.30bn in constant 2026 USD. The former construction scope is retired; this arithmetic does not validate quantities, risk allowances or affordability.
Mandatory reference case: price a national package of road renewal, bus priority, guaranteed electric feeders and existing-rail improvement. It is not yet costed and must be compared with every new corridor on door-to-door access, safety, emissions and whole-life cost.
South Armenia Access Gate · Gate S
What combination of regional rail reopening, road investment, direct coach and feeder transport gives Vayots Dzor and Syunik the best reliable access? No new domestic mountain railway is an explicit valid outcome.
- Topography and preliminary alignment
- Gradients, curve radii and realistic operating speeds
- Tunnel and viaduct quantities, geology and seismic safety
- Competitive end-to-end journey time
- Passenger and contracted freight demand
- Lifecycle finance, subsidy and affordability
- Environment, climate resilience and emergency access
- Comparison with road, coach, regional reopening and no new domestic mountain railway
The north–south route via Nakhchivan is the Armenian Government’s stated position of 11 March 2026, informed by mountainous terrain. It is a policy position, not this project’s independent proof that every domestic alignment is physically impossible. Cross-border service still requires agreements, infrastructure, access rights and a workable border process.
Primary source · 11 March 2026Fiscal model
From headline cost to annual affordability
A government decision needs year-by-year real and nominal cash flow, financing cost, currency exposure, operations and renewals — not only a total in 2026 dollars.
| Model block | Current project status | What must be added | Decision use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital quantities | Revised scope not yet priced | Route-by-route earthworks, tunnels, bridges, systems, land and rolling stock quantities | Tender scope and risk model |
| Annual cash flow | Not yet modelled | Real and nominal expenditure by year, package and currency | Budget peaks and borrowing plan |
| Financing | Principles only | Grants, concessional debt, budget, guarantees, interest and fees | Debt affordability and financial close |
| Operations | Unknown for revised scope | Timetable-based staff, energy, maintenance, security and renewals model | Public-service contract and subsidy |
| Revenue | Not quantified | Fare policy, passenger demand, access charges and contracted freight | Net fiscal requirement |
Stress tests required: route length ±25%, tunnel quantities, construction inflation, AMD exchange rate, power price, ridership, border delay, freight-contract failure, slower delivery and interest during construction. Results may be called P50/P80 only after a documented probabilistic model exists.